EUR/USD Forecast and Trade Ideas for June 23 2016

Previous trading day:

Yesterday`s EUR/USD trading session was marked with some higher volatility supported by news on Brexit referendum and capital flows to equities. Another day of high volatility is ahead as British referendum is finally due today. Whatever polls and estimates are showing at this moment, official results might imply immediate strong market reaction if Britons vote for exit. Although British pound will suffer the most from this move, euro will also follow this scenario against all other currencies. Fed Governor Powell noted today that Fed is ready for any outcome of referendum, while Fed Chair Yellen noted that Fed will not schedule meeting to discuss Brexit outcome. ECB officials previously noted that they will use all policy measures to cope with potential market disruption on vote to exit. How British are going to vote is to be seen today after polls are closed.

EURO-DOLLAR.Com Top Forex Brokers
Trade EUR/USD with AVA Trade
Trade EUR/USD with eTORO
Trade EUR/USD with XM.Com

List of results released during previous day are following:

US results 22JunUS MBA Mortgage Applications are increased by 2.9%, after drop of -2.4% during previous week, implying on general rebound of US housing market.

US House Price Index is increased by 0.2% in April compared to previous month. Figure is modestly below market consensus at 0.7%.

US Existing Home Sales are continuing up trend with increase of 1.8% during May compared to previous month. After strong drop in February of -7.1% on a monthly basis, existing home sales market rebound by 5.1%m/m in March followed with 1.7% in April. Released data for May were fully in line with market expectations.

 

DAY AHEAD:

EUR/USD Economic Calendar for today is following:

Fundamentals 23JunMarkit PMI index for Germany: first estimate for June will be released. Since the beginning of this year Markit Manufacturing index was moving around 52 points, excluding March, when manufacturing sentiment dropped to 50.7. During May index reached 52.1 points, while market is expecting quite modest decrease in index to levels of 52.0. During this year sentiment for services was moving around 55 points. During May index was standing at 55.2 while market consensus is standing at 55.0 as initial estimate for June. PMI composite is expected also to quite modestly drop to 54.3 in June from 54.5 posted for May.

Markit PMI index for Euro Zone: preliminary results for June will be released. After reaching 52.3 in January, Markit sentiment for manufacturing in Euro Zone has been decreased to level of 51 where index was moving during following months, reaching 51.5 as of May. Market estimate for June is 51.3, modestly lower than May result. Highest level for this year of sentiment index for services was reached during March with 54.0 points, while during May index was standing at 53.3. Market estimate for services sentiment for June is 53.1.

US New Home Sales: data for May will be released showing changes in new home sales  from previous month. Although sales figures has been relatively weak since the beginning of this year, increase of 16.6% during April has beaten all expectations. However, for May market is expecting to see some relaxation after April figures and drop of -9.5%.

US Markit Manufacturing PMI: Since the beginning of this year Markit sentiment for manufacturing is continuously decreasing, from 52.4 in January down to 50.7 in May. Index figures above 50 are indicating optimistic sentiment, while market is not expecting its further drop but modest increase to level of 50.9.

Chart of day:

Graph 23JunCheck also Euro Dollar History Graph.

Yesterday`s EUR/USD trading session was marked with some higher volatility supported by news on Brexit referendum and capital flows to equities. After opening at levels of 1.1230, currency pair continued strongly toward 1.1330 levels, returning back to levels around 1.13.

For some time level of 1.13 is significant level for currency pair. Clear break of 1.13 support would take currency pair to previous levels at 1.1240, 1.12 down to 1.113 and 1.105.

On the opposite side, current resistance levels are at 1.1320 further to 1.1390 and 1.1450 which is long term resistance level.

Below are presented some trading ideas for today, based on technical analysis taking into account current level of EUR/USD trend and excluding overnight open positions.

 

Trade idea 23JunFor long term EUR/USD forecast from investment bankers check Euro to Dollar Forecast

Disclaimer: Above presented trading ideas represent personal view of the author and should not be treated as any sort of investment advice or trading recommendation.

AVA Trade
Trade With Confidence
Award-winning innovative broker. Segregated accounts with leading international banks.+200 financial instruments for trading.
XM
$30 No Deposit Bonus
Open an XM Zero account and trade with spreads as low as 0! Average EUR/USD spread 0.1
eToro Social Trading
Copy Successful Traders
Automatically copy leading traders in eToro community. Expert trader? get copied yourself to earn a second income!

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.