EUR/USD Forecast and Trade Ideas for June 15 2016

Previous trading day:

During yesterday`s trading session currency pair was trading within range of 100 pips from levels 1.13 down to 1.12, supported by better than expected US retail sales data for May.

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Five-star event for this week – FOMC meeting is scheduled for today, where further strengthening of monetary policy will be discussed together with economic projections for future period. Taking into account relatively weak labor market data posted during previous week and Brexit referendum scheduled for next week, final market expectations are not on side of any change in interest rate during today`s meeting.

List of results released during previous day are following:

EU results 14JunEuro Zone Industrial Production is increased in April by 1.1% compared to previous month, which represents significant improvement from -0.8% drop both in March and February. Result is also better from market estimate at 0.8%m/m. At the same time, IP on a yearly basis reached 2.0%, which represents significant increase from 0.2% posted previously and 1.4% expected by market, bringing some confidence in further growth of EU economy.

Euro Zone employment during first quarter of this year is increased by 0.3% on a quarterly basis, same as per last quarter of previous year.  On a yearly basis employment for first quarter is increased by 1.4%, higher than 1.2% previously released.

US results 14JunNational Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index reached 93.8 during May, above market expectations at 93.5 and higher from April`s 93.6. Although expected business conditions component of index rose the most, the index is still well below its ten year average of 98, indicating on slowdown in small business sentiment during previous years. As most critical issues for business expansion it has been noted luck of qualified labor force, drop in earnings and political climate.

US Retail Sales are increased during May by 0.5% compared to previous month. Although data are significantly lower from 1.3% posted for previous month, it is still better from market estimate at 0.3%. Retail sales excluding autos are increased by 0.4% which was fully in line with market expectations.

US Import Prices are up for 1.4% in May compared to previous month, and better from market estimate at 0.8%. On a yearly basis, import prices modestly dropped to -5.0% y/y from -5.3% posted previously. Slowdown in drop of import prices might point out to future inflation increase.

Wholesalers Business Inventories have been increased by 0.1% during April, modestly below 0.2% market estimate.


EUR/USD Economic Calendar for today is following:

Fundamentals 15JunEuro Zone Trade Balance: result for April will be released both seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted. As of the end of March trade balance surplus reached Eur22.3b, while market is expecting modest slowdown in April to Eur21.5b.

US Industrial Production: results for May will be released. After relatively strong output of US industrial production during January with 0.9% increase on a monthly basis, February and March  brought some slowdown with -0.5% m/m and -0.6% on a monthly basis. During April, IP was increased for 0.7%m/m, however, market is expecting to see some modest slowdown during May of -0.1%m/m.

Update on released results you can follow-up on Euro Dollar News and EUR/USD Economic Calendar.


Chart of day:

Chart 15-JunCheck also Euro Dollar History Graph.

Supported by better than expected US retail sales data for May currency pair was traded within range 1.13 down to 1.12. Short term resistance level at 1.13 has been tested for a third day in a row, as well as short term support level at 1.12.

Break from 1.12 short term support level would lead currency pair to next level of 1.113 down to 1.105.

On the opposite side, next resistance levels are found at 1.1240, 1.13 up to 1.1390.

Below are presented some trading ideas for today, based on technical analysis taking into account current level of EUR/USD trend and excluding overnight open positions.

Trade idea 15-JunFor long term EUR/USD forecast from investment bankers check Euro to Dollar Forecast

Disclaimer: Above presented trading ideas represent personal view of the author and should not be treated as any sort of investment advice or trading recommendation.

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